Bitcoin difficulty set to fall about 6.3% around 13 November: what it means for ASIC miners

After two October increases, Bitcoin mining difficulty is set to fall at the next retarget. According to mempool.space, the estimate on 9 November 2026 points to about a 6.3% cut at block 975,744, expected around 13 November 2026 near 18:10 UTC. About 556 blocks remain in the current 2,016-block epoch (roughly 72% done). This is a live estimate: it moves with every block as average block time changes.

The numbers behind the cut

Network difficulty now sits at about 148.36T after the 29 October rise of 5.54%. The retarget before that, on 16 October at block 971,712, added 5.92%. A 6.3% cut would take difficulty to about 139.0T. Independent trackers such as Firsthand Bitcoin and Coindaro also show a drop for this epoch; their earlier reads on 8 November were near 4.8%, which underlines that the figure is not fixed until the retarget lands.

What it means for SHA-256 ASIC miners

Difficulty decides how much of the block reward a fixed amount of hashrate can expect. If network hashrate stays near today’s level, a 6.3% lower difficulty raises expected BTC per TH by about 6.8%. Hashprice, the USD earned per PH per day, would move in the same direction if the bitcoin price holds. Older, less efficient ASICs on the SHA-256 algorithm get a little more room against electricity cost; the reverse happens when difficulty climbs, as it did twice in October.

What to watch until 13 November

The cut is not locked in. Faster blocks in the remaining ~556 will shrink the drop; slower blocks will deepen it. After the retarget, the next cycle of 2,016 blocks starts from the new baseline, so a rebound in hashrate can push the late-November adjustment back up. Recheck mempool.space near the switch and recompute break-even for your fleet with the new difficulty, not with today’s 148.36T.