Solo CKPool finds two Bitcoin blocks in one day: what the odds look like for a Bitaxe

Solo CKPool, the pool where each miner works alone for the whole block reward, found two Bitcoin blocks on 7 November 2026 (UTC): block 974,893 at 04:51 and block 974,930 at 11:41. The second one paid a block reward of about 3.14 BTC, as shown on the block page.

The miner behind block 974,930

The pool's own thread on Bitcointalk says the winning address was running about 86.9 TH/s, and that a miner of that size has roughly a one in 233 chance of finding a block in a year. Our own calculation with the current difficulty of about 148.36 T gives the same picture: an expected block every 232 years, or about 0.4% per year.

What the same odds look like for a hobby miner

At the same difficulty, one TH/s of SHA-256 hashrate is expected to find a block about once in 20,000 years. Using the rated speeds on our pages, the numbers for small home devices are below. They are estimates, and difficulty changes every two weeks.

• Bitaxe Supra 401: 0.6 TH/s at 14 W, about one block per 33,650 years, or roughly 0.003% a year.
• Bitaxe Ultra 204: 0.5 TH/s at 11 W, about one block per 40,400 years, or roughly 0.0025% a year.
• A rig of 86.9 TH/s: about one block per 232 years, 0.43% a year.

What it means for you

Solo mining is a lottery ticket that costs only electricity. A home miner that draws 11 to 14 watts is cheap to keep running, and the rare win does happen, but it should not be counted as income. If you want regular small payouts, pick a pool that pays per share. If you play the lottery, spend only what you would spend on a ticket and keep the odds above in mind.